Message from the Director, Mark Lubell
The mission of the Center for Environmental Policy and Behavior (CEPB) is scientific analysis of the interactions among policy institutions, human behavior, and political decisions in the context of environmental and natural resource conflicts. Through developing and testing theoretical models from social science, CEPB seeks to derive practical lessons that can be used to improve environmental policy.
Most researchers are misinterpreting geometrically weighted degree (GWD) estimates in exponential random graph models (ERGMs) of networks. By a 3:1 ratio papers cite positive estimates of GWD as indicative of a popularity or centralization force; in fact, positive estimates indicate dispersion of edges.
Here is a Shiny app that allows you to examine the effects of GWD parameter and decay-parameter values on network degree distributions. On the app’s other tabs, it provides some intuition on how the GWD statistic works and how GWD and GWESP – which is used to model triadic closure – are confounded.
I presented this research at the 2016 Political Networks conference. Check out the poster, which includes a literature review showing how prevalent this mistake is, by clicking on the image.
On May 9, 2016 the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) announced new emergency water conservation regulations applicable to urban water suppliers throughout the state.
In a recent New York Times editorial, Charles Fishman argues “Water is Broken. Data Can Fix It.” He laments the dearth of water data in the United States, and suggests that increasing the collection and availability of water data will create a demand for additional information, change behavior, and ignite innovation. Mike Kiparsky and Joshua Viers reiterate this idea in the Los Angeles Times, in the context of needing better information for California water.
How can a simple game represent a complex social-ecological system? For the last few years, I have taught a graduate class on social-ecological systems (SES) that introduces SES concepts and frameworks along with delving into a number of related topics in environmental social science. A core activity of the class involves student groups choosing SES case studies, and applying the course topics from a particular week to the case study. Over the years, student groups have come up with creative participatory SES games as an alternative to top-down presentations. The Winter 2016 students took participatory games to the most advanced level yet—all four student groups created games representing their SES case studies.
We just released a policy brief with our initial analysis of the structure of Twitter networks centered on California agriculture. Starting with 153 users identified as relevant to California agriculture by the UC Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, we traced the followers and followees of the initial group to identify approximately 59K Twitter users. The results clearly support the idea that social media outlets like Twitter can be a valuable aspect of strategic communications, education, and outreach about agriculture and the environment. Among the most interesting findings are:
1. The network is divided into 10 communities including climate, food, water, agriculture, plant sciences, politics, international development, viticulture, gardening, and animal welfare.
While interest in sustainable agriculture is widespread and increasing, precisely what is meant by “sustainable agriculture” is often ambiguous. Furthermore, the number, diversity, and interdependence of related factors (agronomic, social, economic, environmental, political, etc.) make it difficult for stakeholders to agree on how to develop programs and policies for supporting sustainable agriculture. To address these problems we assembled panels of agriculture experts from the public, private, and non-profit sectors and elicited their “mental models” of sustainable agriculture—detailed cause-and-effect representations of how sustainable agriculture works. Mental models allow us to examine how the understanding of sustainable agriculture is shared across multiple individuals and regions.
Michael Levy, Neil McRoberts, and Mark Lubell
This blog COP21 was written with my most excellent colleague and global climate modeller Ben Houlton. We tried to get it into some newspaper editorials, but we were somewhat late off the mark in the policy wonk COP21 feeding frenzy. I happen to know the editor of the CEPB blog (funny thing that), so here you go.
On December 12, the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris produced an ambitious agreement that observers are hailing as a landmark in the fight against climate change. For the first time, large developing countries like China and India have pledged to reduce their emissions and each of the final 186 signatories submitted strategies to reduce their emissions. Developed countries agreed to help developing countries pay for adaptation and transitions to cleaner energy systems. COP21 represents an unprecedented level of global effort.
Contestation and co-ordination in biosecurity. Click to watch Ryan McAllister of CSIRO present his work on policy networks and biosecurity in Australia.
I recently attended a Princeton conference on global governance, complex adaptive systems, and evolutionary theory. The conference was hosted by ecologist Simon Levin and political scientist Bob Keohane, and featured some of the world’s top scholars in these areas of research. Simon Levin, who has written extensively about complex adaptive systems and a gazillion other things, offered the analogy of the immune system as a way to think how water governance responds to risk and crises. Immune systems help maintain the function of biological organisms by responding quickly to invasions from external pathogens, or regulating rogue cells that might otherwise cause cancers.